Page Owner: Capt Christina.Obergfell (Christina.Obergfell@pentagon.af.mil)

MORS Working Group 3 - Strategic Relations and Influences

Chair: Capt Christina Obergfell, HQ AF/A9RP, Christina.Obergfell@pentagon.af.mil

Co-Chair: Brenda Harms, USEUCOM/J8, Brenda.Harms@eucom.mil

Co-Chair: Dr. Roy Rice, Teledyne Brown Engineering, Roy.Rice@tbe.com

Advisor: Hunter Marks, USSTRATCOM/J811, Hunter.Marks@us.af.mil

Working Group 3 Charter

Strategic Relations and Influences

(Last Updated 29 August 2008)

PURPOSE:  To identify, explore, analyze and discuss deterrence, stability, theatre security cooperation and arms control.

DISCUSSION:  The discussions of the working group cover analyses of deterrence issues associated with discouraging and dissuading adversaries and assuring allies, maintaining or restoring stability at the regional and strategic levels, theatre security cooperation, and modern arms control issues (e.g. space, missile defense, proliferation, etc.) This group explores methodologies that can create a better understanding of the issues and implications involved in alternative approaches to deterrence and stability operations. Interest areas include strategic, intermediate, and tactical defenses, strategic force structure impacts, treaty implications, changes in roles and missions, WMD proliferation, cyber deterrence, influence operations, role of infrastructure in deterrence, and other related topics  The working group will also investigate the status and future prospects for regional stabilities and military capabilities, explore analytical methods employed by other nations involved in the arms control process, or examine issues at the strategic level thereby providing a perspective that is particularly helpful to those involved in formulating warfighter, service, and agency policy.

OTHER WORKING GROUPS:  The Strategic Relations & Influences Working Group may hold periodic joint sessions with the Strategic Operations; Nuclear, Chemical, Biological (NBC) Defense; Air & Missile Defense; ISR & Intelligence Analysis; Information Operations; Special Operations and Irregular Warfare; Warfighter Performance & Social Science; and Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Working Groups to discuss various issues related to deterrence and stability.

 77th

Prospectus for the 77th MORS Symposium; Ft. Leavenworth, KS; 16-18 June 2009

(To be published in the MORS Announcement and Call for Papers)

The 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review laid out four defense policy goals: assuring allies and friends; dissuading future military competition; deterring threats and coercion towards U.S. interests; and if deterrence fails, decisively defeating any adversary.  This reinforced the importance of the U.S. deterring adversaries.  While deterrence remains an enduring goal, the U.S. has also continued to face the need to conduct stability operations around the globe, including most recently, countries like Iraq and Afghanistan.  Both of these missions present challenges to the OR community as we try to develop methodologies to assess capabilities and outcomes in these mission areas.  The global nature of these missions presents the challenge of theatre security cooperation as missions typically span more than one geographic combatant command.  In addition to these three challenges, we find the resurging need for arms control in today's world.  While nuclear arms control appears minor in scope compared to the days of the Cold War, we also face the need for arms control in the realms of space, missile defense, and cyberspace.  The continued importance of these issues is accompanied by an elevation of attention given to it by the MORS community.

In order to respond globally, the working group is soliciting analytically leading papers on the full spectrum of current and future issues. These issues include but are not limited to: Deterrence, Causes and Prevention of War; Conflict and Peacekeeping; Emerging, Catastrophic, and Disruptive Events; Regional Security Forces and Strategy; Theatre Security Cooperation; Arms Control; Proliferation Maintenance, Monitoring, Prevention and Mitigation; Stability and Escalation Dynamics; Diplomatic and Military Approaches; Delivery and Defenses; Alternative/Potential Futures; Sustainment; Development; and Changing Environments.

Papers employing modeling, simulation, game theory, optimization, decision analysis, management science, assessment across PMESII and other quantitative/ analytical techniques are especially welcomed.  Both completed tasks and work in progress are encouraged.

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